TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Van Horn | William Chrisman |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| PF / GAME | 25.0 | 22.9 |
| PA / GAME | 23.5 | 27.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | +1.1 | -9.1 |
| SOS | -10.5 | -0.8 |
| POWER | -2.6 | -9.4 |
VAN HORN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Van Horn finished the job, as Van Horn and William Chrisman finished 31-29. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 27-22 final.
The actual margin was 2 points versus MOFO's 4.3-point projection. That produced a 2.3-point margin error, with score errors of 4.2 for Van Horn and 6.5 for William Chrisman.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD VAN HORN
MOFO leans toward Van Horn because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.3-point margin, with Van Horn carrying a 64% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Van Horn enters at 25.0 points per game compared with 22.9 for William Chrisman. Van Horn also allows 3.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -10.5 for Van Horn and -0.8 for William Chrisman. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Van Horn owns the stronger scoring profile.
02William Chrisman has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.