TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Webb City | Willard |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-0 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 33.9 | 20.4 |
| PA / GAME | 19.9 | 35.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | +17.7 | -19.8 |
| SOS | -4.1 | -12.7 |
| POWER | +16.2 | -24.3 |
WEBB CITY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Webb City finished the job, as Webb City and Willard finished 49-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 39-15 final.
The actual margin was 49 points versus MOFO's 24.0-point projection. That produced a 25.0-point margin error, with score errors of 9.5 for Webb City and 15.4 for Willard.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WEBB CITY
MOFO leans toward Webb City because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 40.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 24.0-point margin, with Webb City carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Webb City enters at 33.9 points per game compared with 20.4 for Willard. Webb City also allows 15.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.1 for Webb City and -12.7 for Willard. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Webb City owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Webb City has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 40.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.