TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Hillcrest | West Plains |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| PF / GAME | 24.6 | 27.5 |
| PA / GAME | 32.8 | 23.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -12.7 | +3.8 |
| SOS | +4.2 | +6.8 |
| POWER | -11.2 | +6.2 |
WEST PLAINS WRITES THE FINAL WORD
West Plains finished the job, as Hillcrest and West Plains finished 12-34. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 22-32 final.
The actual margin was 22 points versus MOFO's 9.8-point projection. That produced a 12.2-point margin error, with score errors of 10.2 for Hillcrest and 2.0 for West Plains.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WEST PLAINS
MOFO leans toward West Plains because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 17.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.8-point margin, with West Plains carrying a 79% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: West Plains enters at 27.5 points per game compared with 24.6 for Hillcrest. West Plains also allows 9.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +6.8 for West Plains and +4.2 for Hillcrest. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01West Plains owns the stronger scoring profile.
02West Plains has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 17.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.