TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Harrisonville | Warrensburg |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| PF / GAME | 27.7 | 28.9 |
| PA / GAME | 29.7 | 22.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -1.8 | +9.1 |
| SOS | +9.7 | -3.7 |
| POWER | +1.6 | +7.8 |
WARRENSBURG WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Warrensburg finished the job, as Harrisonville and Warrensburg finished 27-48. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 25-30 final.
The actual margin was 21 points versus MOFO's 4.8-point projection. That produced a 16.2-point margin error, with score errors of 2.1 for Harrisonville and 18.4 for Warrensburg.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WARRENSBURG
MOFO leans toward Warrensburg because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.8-point margin, with Warrensburg carrying a 65% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Warrensburg enters at 28.9 points per game compared with 27.7 for Harrisonville. Warrensburg also allows 7.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -3.7 for Warrensburg and +9.7 for Harrisonville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Warrensburg owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Harrisonville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.