TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Warsaw | Versailles |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| PF / GAME | 32.4 | 20.2 |
| PA / GAME | 26.4 | 25.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | +8.9 | -3.5 |
| SOS | -8.5 | +1.1 |
| POWER | +6.0 | -3.2 |
VERSAILLES WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Versailles finished the job, as Warsaw and Versailles finished 7-12. MOFO's pick of Warsaw missed; the model had projected a 30-23 final.
The actual margin was 5 points versus MOFO's 7.0-point projection. That produced a 12.0-point margin error, with score errors of 22.5 for Warsaw and 10.5 for Versailles.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WARSAW
MOFO leans toward Warsaw because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 9.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.0-point margin, with Warsaw carrying a 72% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Warsaw enters at 32.4 points per game compared with 20.2 for Versailles. Versailles's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -8.5 for Warsaw and +1.1 for Versailles. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Warsaw owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Versailles has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 9.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.