TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Crystal City | Veritas Christian Academy |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 2-0 |
| PF / GAME | 22.2 | 35.2 |
| PA / GAME | 32.2 | 20.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -13.1 | +19.5 |
| SOS | -13.9 | -23.3 |
| POWER | -18.0 | +11.3 |
VERITAS CHRISTIAN ACADEMY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Veritas Christian Academy finished the job, as Crystal City and Veritas Christian Academy finished 26-27. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 19-37 final.
The actual margin was 1 points versus MOFO's 18.1-point projection. That produced a 17.1-point margin error, with score errors of 7.4 for Crystal City and 9.7 for Veritas Christian Academy.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD VERITAS CHRISTIAN ACADEMY
MOFO leans toward Veritas Christian Academy because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 29.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 18.1-point margin, with Veritas Christian Academy carrying a 92% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Veritas Christian Academy enters at 35.2 points per game compared with 22.2 for Crystal City. Veritas Christian Academy also allows 11.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -23.3 for Veritas Christian Academy and -13.9 for Crystal City. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Veritas Christian Academy owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Crystal City has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 29.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.