TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Montgomery County | Van-Far |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 18.5 | 19.9 |
| PA / GAME | 25.7 | 35.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | -10.0 | -21.2 |
| SOS | -2.0 | +8.8 |
| POWER | -10.7 | -18.1 |
MONTGOMERY COUNTY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Montgomery County finished the job, as Montgomery County and Van-Far finished 62-30. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 27-22 final.
The actual margin was 32 points versus MOFO's 5.0-point projection. That produced a 27.0-point margin error, with score errors of 34.7 for Montgomery County and 7.7 for Van-Far.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MONTGOMERY COUNTY
MOFO leans toward Montgomery County because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.0-point margin, with Montgomery County carrying a 66% win probability.
Van-Far actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Montgomery County also allows 9.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -2.0 for Montgomery County and +8.8 for Van-Far. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Van-Far owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Van-Far has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.