TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | St. Vincent | Valle Catholic |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-0 | 4-0 |
| PF / GAME | 31.2 | 45.9 |
| PA / GAME | 11.5 | 16.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | +29.1 | +35.0 |
| SOS | -3.0 | -0.6 |
| POWER | +28.1 | +34.8 |
VALLE CATHOLIC WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Valle Catholic finished the job, as St. Vincent and Valle Catholic finished 0-48. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 23-29 final.
The actual margin was 48 points versus MOFO's 6.3-point projection. That produced a 41.7-point margin error, with score errors of 23.0 for St. Vincent and 18.6 for Valle Catholic.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD VALLE CATHOLIC
MOFO leans toward Valle Catholic because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.3-point margin, with Valle Catholic carrying a 70% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Valle Catholic enters at 45.9 points per game compared with 31.2 for St. Vincent. St. Vincent's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.6 for Valle Catholic and -3.0 for St. Vincent. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Valle Catholic owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Valle Catholic has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.