TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Owensville | Union |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-4 | 3-1 |
| PF / GAME | 15.0 | 34.0 |
| PA / GAME | 37.9 | 21.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -27.5 | +18.2 |
| SOS | +4.4 | -16.4 |
| POWER | -25.9 | +12.5 |
UNION WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Union finished the job, as Owensville and Union finished 6-48. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 14-40 final.
The actual margin was 42 points versus MOFO's 26.0-point projection. That produced a 16.0-point margin error, with score errors of 8.0 for Owensville and 8.0 for Union.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD UNION
MOFO leans toward Union because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 38.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 26.0-point margin, with Union carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Union enters at 34.0 points per game compared with 15.0 for Owensville. Union also allows 16.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -16.4 for Union and +4.4 for Owensville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Union owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Owensville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 38.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.