TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Belton | Truman |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 0-4 |
| PF / GAME | 22.7 | 12.4 |
| PA / GAME | 31.2 | 45.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -9.4 | -35.0 |
| SOS | +10.3 | -2.9 |
| POWER | -5.8 | -36.0 |
BELTON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Belton finished the job, as Belton and Truman finished 47-6. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 38-18 final.
The actual margin was 41 points versus MOFO's 19.5-point projection. That produced a 21.5-point margin error, with score errors of 9.5 for Belton and 12.1 for Truman.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD BELTON
MOFO leans toward Belton because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 30.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 19.5-point margin, with Belton carrying a 93% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Belton enters at 22.7 points per game compared with 12.4 for Truman. Belton also allows 13.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +10.3 for Belton and -2.9 for Truman. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Belton owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Belton has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 30.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.