TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Ft. Zumwalt West | Troy Buchanan |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| PF / GAME | 22.0 | 33.5 |
| PA / GAME | 32.7 | 18.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -13.4 | +22.5 |
| SOS | +4.6 | +0.7 |
| POWER | -11.8 | +22.7 |
TROY BUCHANAN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Troy Buchanan finished the job, as Ft. Zumwalt West and Troy Buchanan finished 26-48. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 17-37 final.
The actual margin was 22 points versus MOFO's 20.2-point projection. That produced a 1.8-point margin error, with score errors of 9.4 for Ft. Zumwalt West and 11.2 for Troy Buchanan.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD TROY BUCHANAN
MOFO leans toward Troy Buchanan because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 34.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 20.2-point margin, with Troy Buchanan carrying a 94% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Troy Buchanan enters at 33.5 points per game compared with 22.0 for Ft. Zumwalt West. Troy Buchanan also allows 14.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.7 for Troy Buchanan and +4.6 for Ft. Zumwalt West. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Troy Buchanan owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Ft. Zumwalt West has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 34.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.