TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | South Callaway | Tipton with Bunceton |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 4-0 |
| PF / GAME | 28.9 | 40.9 |
| PA / GAME | 19.7 | 16.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +12.9 | +29.4 |
| SOS | -3.7 | -6.8 |
| POWER | +11.6 | +27.0 |
TIPTON WITH BUNCETON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Tipton with Bunceton finished the job, as South Callaway and Tipton with Bunceton finished 0-54. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 21-32 final.
The actual margin was 54 points versus MOFO's 10.2-point projection. That produced a 43.8-point margin error, with score errors of 21.4 for South Callaway and 22.3 for Tipton with Bunceton.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD TIPTON WITH BUNCETON
MOFO leans toward Tipton with Bunceton because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 15.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.2-point margin, with Tipton with Bunceton carrying a 80% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Tipton with Bunceton enters at 40.9 points per game compared with 28.9 for South Callaway. Tipton with Bunceton also allows 2.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -6.8 for Tipton with Bunceton and -3.7 for South Callaway. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Tipton with Bunceton owns the stronger scoring profile.
02South Callaway has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 15.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.