TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | West Nodaway | Tarkio |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-0 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 49.5 | 22.5 |
| PA / GAME | 26.2 | 38.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | +28.1 | -17.5 |
| SOS | -9.6 | +3.9 |
| POWER | +24.7 | -16.1 |
WEST NODAWAY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
West Nodaway finished the job, as West Nodaway and Tarkio finished 48-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 48-20 final.
The actual margin was 48 points versus MOFO's 28.2-point projection. That produced a 19.8-point margin error, with score errors of 0.3 for West Nodaway and 20.1 for Tarkio.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WEST NODAWAY
MOFO leans toward West Nodaway because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 40.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 28.2-point margin, with West Nodaway carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: West Nodaway enters at 49.5 points per game compared with 22.5 for Tarkio. West Nodaway also allows 12.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -9.6 for West Nodaway and +3.9 for Tarkio. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01West Nodaway owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Tarkio has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 40.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.