TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Wellington-Napoleon | Sweet Springs |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| PF / GAME | 33.5 | 41.9 |
| PA / GAME | 35.5 | 40.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | -1.1 | +3.3 |
| SOS | +6.8 | +2.7 |
| POWER | +1.3 | +4.3 |
WELLINGTON-NAPOLEON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Wellington-Napoleon finished the job, as Wellington-Napoleon and Sweet Springs finished 48-26. MOFO's pick of Sweet Springs missed; the model had projected a 37-39 final.
The actual margin was 22 points versus MOFO's 2.7-point projection. That produced a 24.7-point margin error, with score errors of 11.5 for Wellington-Napoleon and 13.2 for Sweet Springs.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SWEET SPRINGS
MOFO leans toward Sweet Springs because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.7-point margin, with Sweet Springs carrying a 59% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Sweet Springs enters at 41.9 points per game compared with 33.5 for Wellington-Napoleon. Wellington-Napoleon's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.7 for Sweet Springs and +6.8 for Wellington-Napoleon. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Sweet Springs owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Wellington-Napoleon has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.