TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Pacific | Sullivan |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-4 | 3-1 |
| PF / GAME | 22.9 | 34.4 |
| PA / GAME | 38.2 | 22.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -22.5 | +15.3 |
| SOS | +9.5 | -2.7 |
| POWER | -19.2 | +14.4 |
SULLIVAN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Sullivan finished the job, as Pacific and Sullivan finished 10-35. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 19-40 final.
The actual margin was 25 points versus MOFO's 20.3-point projection. That produced a 4.7-point margin error, with score errors of 9.4 for Pacific and 4.6 for Sullivan.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SULLIVAN
MOFO leans toward Sullivan because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 33.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 20.3-point margin, with Sullivan carrying a 94% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Sullivan enters at 34.4 points per game compared with 22.9 for Pacific. Sullivan also allows 15.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -2.7 for Sullivan and +9.5 for Pacific. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Sullivan owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Pacific has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 33.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.