TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Hollister | Strafford |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-4 | 3-1 |
| PF / GAME | 19.0 | 26.5 |
| PA / GAME | 43.0 | 24.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -30.9 | +6.3 |
| SOS | +13.0 | -3.7 |
| POWER | -26.4 | +5.0 |
STRAFFORD WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Strafford finished the job, as Hollister and Strafford finished 0-47. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 18-38 final.
The actual margin was 47 points versus MOFO's 20.0-point projection. That produced a 27.0-point margin error, with score errors of 18.3 for Hollister and 8.8 for Strafford.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD STRAFFORD
MOFO leans toward Strafford because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 31.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 20.0-point margin, with Strafford carrying a 93% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Strafford enters at 26.5 points per game compared with 19.0 for Hollister. Strafford also allows 18.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -3.7 for Strafford and +13.0 for Hollister. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Strafford owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hollister has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 31.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.