TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Fredericktown | Ste. Genevieve |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| PF / GAME | 19.9 | 29.9 |
| PA / GAME | 26.2 | 20.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -4.3 | +7.4 |
| SOS | +6.3 | +4.7 |
| POWER | -2.1 | +9.1 |
STE. GENEVIEVE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Ste. Genevieve finished the job, as Fredericktown and Ste. Genevieve finished 8-40. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 19-29 final.
The actual margin was 32 points versus MOFO's 9.8-point projection. That produced a 22.2-point margin error, with score errors of 11.3 for Fredericktown and 10.9 for Ste. Genevieve.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD STE. GENEVIEVE
MOFO leans toward Ste. Genevieve because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 11.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.8-point margin, with Ste. Genevieve carrying a 79% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Ste. Genevieve enters at 29.9 points per game compared with 19.9 for Fredericktown. Ste. Genevieve also allows 5.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +4.7 for Ste. Genevieve and +6.3 for Fredericktown. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Ste. Genevieve owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Fredericktown has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 11.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.