TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Summit Christian Academy | St. Michael the Archangel |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 28.7 | 21.5 |
| PA / GAME | 22.2 | 29.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | +8.5 | -13.1 |
| SOS | +0.0 | +13.8 |
| POWER | +8.5 | -8.3 |
SUMMIT CHRISTIAN ACADEMY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Summit Christian Academy finished the job, as Summit Christian Academy and St. Michael the Archangel finished 21-20. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 31-20 final.
The actual margin was 1 points versus MOFO's 10.2-point projection. That produced a 9.2-point margin error, with score errors of 9.6 for Summit Christian Academy and 0.4 for St. Michael the Archangel.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SUMMIT CHRISTIAN ACADEMY
MOFO leans toward Summit Christian Academy because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 16.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.2-point margin, with Summit Christian Academy carrying a 80% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Summit Christian Academy enters at 28.7 points per game compared with 21.5 for St. Michael the Archangel. Summit Christian Academy also allows 7.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.0 for Summit Christian Academy and +13.8 for St. Michael the Archangel. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Summit Christian Academy owns the stronger scoring profile.
02St. Michael the Archangel has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 16.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.