TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lincoln College Prep | St. Mary's (KS) Academy |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| PF / GAME | 16.0 | 21.4 |
| PA / GAME | 19.7 | 22.8 |
| AVG MARGIN | -6.1 | -5.2 |
| SOS | -4.0 | +3.2 |
| POWER | -7.5 | -4.1 |
ST. MARY'S (KS) ACADEMY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Mary's (KS) Academy finished the job, as Lincoln College Prep and St. Mary's (KS) Academy finished 21-24. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 19-21 final.
The actual margin was 3 points versus MOFO's 2.2-point projection. That produced a 0.8-point margin error, with score errors of 2.2 for Lincoln College Prep and 2.9 for St. Mary's (KS) Academy.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ST. MARY'S (KS) ACADEMY
MOFO leans toward St. Mary's (KS) Academy because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.2-point margin, with St. Mary's (KS) Academy carrying a 57% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: St. Mary's (KS) Academy enters at 21.4 points per game compared with 16.0 for Lincoln College Prep. Lincoln College Prep's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +3.2 for St. Mary's (KS) Academy and -4.0 for Lincoln College Prep. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01St. Mary's (KS) Academy owns the stronger scoring profile.
02St. Mary's (KS) Academy has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.