TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Butler | St. James |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| PF / GAME | 33.0 | 18.0 |
| PA / GAME | 29.0 | 27.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +6.5 | -13.8 |
| SOS | -4.7 | +4.0 |
| POWER | +4.8 | -12.4 |
BUTLER WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Butler finished the job, as Butler and St. James finished 18-14. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 32-22 final.
The actual margin was 4 points versus MOFO's 10.3-point projection. That produced a 6.3-point margin error, with score errors of 13.9 for Butler and 7.6 for St. James.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD BUTLER
MOFO leans toward Butler because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 17.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.3-point margin, with Butler carrying a 80% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Butler enters at 33.0 points per game compared with 18.0 for St. James. St. James's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.7 for Butler and +4.0 for St. James. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Butler owns the stronger scoring profile.
02St. James has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 17.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.