ST. FRANCIS BORGIA WRITES THE FINAL WORD

St. Francis Borgia finished the job, as Father Tolton and St. Francis Borgia finished 28-29. MOFO's pick of Father Tolton missed; the model had projected a 28-27 final.

The actual margin was 1 points versus MOFO's 1.0-point projection. That produced a 2.0-point margin error, with score errors of 0.4 for Father Tolton and 1.7 for St. Francis Borgia.

THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD FATHER TOLTON

MOFO leans toward Father Tolton because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.0-point margin, with Father Tolton carrying a 53% win probability.

The clearest separator is scoring: Father Tolton enters at 31.9 points per game compared with 30.9 for St. Francis Borgia. St. Francis Borgia's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.

Strength of schedule checks in at +3.6 for Father Tolton and -13.7 for St. Francis Borgia. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.