TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Orchard Farm | St. Charles West |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 4-0 |
| PF / GAME | 32.5 | 32.7 |
| PA / GAME | 22.9 | 15.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +14.9 | +21.7 |
| SOS | -8.3 | -17.4 |
| POWER | +12.0 | +15.6 |
ST. CHARLES WEST WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Charles West finished the job, as Orchard Farm and St. Charles West finished 14-35. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 24-28 final.
The actual margin was 21 points versus MOFO's 4.3-point projection. That produced a 16.7-point margin error, with score errors of 9.6 for Orchard Farm and 7.1 for St. Charles West.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ST. CHARLES WEST
MOFO leans toward St. Charles West because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.3-point margin, with St. Charles West carrying a 64% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: St. Charles West enters at 32.7 points per game compared with 32.5 for Orchard Farm. St. Charles West also allows 7.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -17.4 for St. Charles West and -8.3 for Orchard Farm. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01St. Charles West owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Orchard Farm has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.