TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Fair Grove | Springfield Catholic |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-0 | 4-0 |
| PF / GAME | 37.2 | 37.2 |
| PA / GAME | 20.2 | 22.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | +22.1 | +20.7 |
| SOS | -4.2 | -7.3 |
| POWER | +20.7 | +18.2 |
SPRINGFIELD CATHOLIC WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Springfield Catholic finished the job, as Fair Grove and Springfield Catholic finished 22-27. MOFO's pick of Fair Grove missed; the model had projected a 30-28 final.
The actual margin was 5 points versus MOFO's 1.8-point projection. That produced a 6.8-point margin error, with score errors of 8.1 for Fair Grove and 1.3 for Springfield Catholic.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD FAIR GROVE
MOFO leans toward Fair Grove because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 2.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.8-point margin, with Fair Grove carrying a 56% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Fair Grove enters at 37.2 points per game compared with 37.2 for Springfield Catholic. Fair Grove also allows 2.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.2 for Fair Grove and -7.3 for Springfield Catholic. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Fair Grove owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Fair Grove has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 2.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.