TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Mound City | South Nodaway |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| PF / GAME | 42.5 | 36.2 |
| PA / GAME | 37.2 | 38.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +6.0 | -3.3 |
| SOS | -12.0 | -5.1 |
| POWER | +1.8 | -5.1 |
MOUND CITY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Mound City finished the job, as Mound City and South Nodaway finished 66-34. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 41-36 final.
The actual margin was 32 points versus MOFO's 5.6-point projection. That produced a 26.4-point margin error, with score errors of 24.7 for Mound City and 1.7 for South Nodaway.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MOUND CITY
MOFO leans toward Mound City because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.6-point margin, with Mound City carrying a 68% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Mound City enters at 42.5 points per game compared with 36.2 for South Nodaway. Mound City also allows 0.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -12.0 for Mound City and -5.1 for South Nodaway. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Mound City owns the stronger scoring profile.
02South Nodaway has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.