TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | DeKalb | South Holt |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-4 | 0-4 |
| PF / GAME | 14.2 | 31.2 |
| PA / GAME | 46.9 | 47.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | -35.0 | -20.4 |
| SOS | +4.7 | +7.3 |
| POWER | -33.3 | -17.9 |
SOUTH HOLT WRITES THE FINAL WORD
South Holt finished the job, as DeKalb and South Holt finished 22-70. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 29-41 final.
The actual margin was 48 points versus MOFO's 11.6-point projection. That produced a 36.4-point margin error, with score errors of 7.1 for DeKalb and 29.2 for South Holt.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SOUTH HOLT
MOFO leans toward South Holt because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 15.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 11.6-point margin, with South Holt carrying a 83% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: South Holt enters at 31.2 points per game compared with 14.2 for DeKalb. DeKalb's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +7.3 for South Holt and +4.7 for DeKalb. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01South Holt owns the stronger scoring profile.
02South Holt has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 15.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.