TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Hickman | Smith-Cotton |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 29.9 | 26.4 |
| PA / GAME | 20.0 | 34.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +11.8 | -12.3 |
| SOS | -7.4 | +5.6 |
| POWER | +9.2 | -10.4 |
HICKMAN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Hickman finished the job, as Hickman and Smith-Cotton finished 48-7. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 34-21 final.
The actual margin was 41 points versus MOFO's 12.8-point projection. That produced a 28.2-point margin error, with score errors of 13.8 for Hickman and 14.4 for Smith-Cotton.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HICKMAN
MOFO leans toward Hickman because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 19.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 12.8-point margin, with Hickman carrying a 85% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Hickman enters at 29.9 points per game compared with 26.4 for Smith-Cotton. Hickman also allows 14.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -7.4 for Hickman and +5.6 for Smith-Cotton. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Hickman owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Smith-Cotton has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 19.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.