TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Stockton with Sheldon | Skyline |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| PF / GAME | 20.5 | 33.0 |
| PA / GAME | 24.0 | 18.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -8.2 | +21.1 |
| SOS | -1.4 | +1.0 |
| POWER | -8.7 | +21.5 |
SKYLINE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Skyline finished the job, as Stockton with Sheldon and Skyline finished 21-47. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 16-32 final.
The actual margin was 26 points versus MOFO's 16.3-point projection. That produced a 9.7-point margin error, with score errors of 5.2 for Stockton with Sheldon and 15.0 for Skyline.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SKYLINE
MOFO leans toward Skyline because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 30.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 16.3-point margin, with Skyline carrying a 90% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Skyline enters at 33.0 points per game compared with 20.5 for Stockton with Sheldon. Skyline also allows 6.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +1.0 for Skyline and -1.4 for Stockton with Sheldon. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Skyline owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Skyline has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 30.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.