TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Fox | Seckman |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| PF / GAME | 29.0 | 30.0 |
| PA / GAME | 25.4 | 25.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | +4.1 | +5.7 |
| SOS | +1.9 | +4.8 |
| POWER | +4.8 | +7.4 |
SECKMAN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Seckman finished the job, as Fox and Seckman finished 20-26. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 27-28 final.
The actual margin was 6 points versus MOFO's 1.2-point projection. That produced a 4.8-point margin error, with score errors of 6.9 for Fox and 2.1 for Seckman.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SECKMAN
MOFO leans toward Seckman because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 2.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.2-point margin, with Seckman carrying a 54% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Seckman enters at 30.0 points per game compared with 29.0 for Fox. Fox's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +4.8 for Seckman and +1.9 for Fox. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Seckman owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Seckman has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 2.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.