TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia) | Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| PF / GAME | 24.9 | 41.5 |
| PA / GAME | 45.9 | 36.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -16.3 | +0.3 |
| SOS | +8.1 | -4.9 |
| POWER | -13.5 | -1.4 |
SANTA FE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Santa Fe finished the job, as St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia) and Santa Fe finished 20-46. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 30-45 final.
The actual margin was 26 points versus MOFO's 14.5-point projection. That produced a 11.5-point margin error, with score errors of 10.0 for St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia) and 1.5 for Santa Fe.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SANTA FE
MOFO leans toward Santa Fe because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 12.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 14.5-point margin, with Santa Fe carrying a 87% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Santa Fe enters at 41.5 points per game compared with 24.9 for St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia). Santa Fe also allows 9.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.9 for Santa Fe and +8.1 for St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Santa Fe owns the stronger scoring profile.
02St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 12.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.