TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Principia | Salisbury |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 4-0 |
| PF / GAME | 34.2 | 43.2 |
| PA / GAME | 37.8 | 13.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -11.7 | +29.1 |
| SOS | -3.7 | -18.0 |
| POWER | -13.0 | +22.8 |
SALISBURY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Salisbury finished the job, as Principia and Salisbury finished 42-77. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 20-44 final.
The actual margin was 35 points versus MOFO's 24.2-point projection. That produced a 10.8-point margin error, with score errors of 22.0 for Principia and 32.8 for Salisbury.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SALISBURY
MOFO leans toward Salisbury because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 35.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 24.2-point margin, with Salisbury carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Salisbury enters at 43.2 points per game compared with 34.2 for Principia. Salisbury also allows 24.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -18.0 for Salisbury and -3.7 for Principia. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Salisbury owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Principia has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 35.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.