TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Ava | Salem |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 16.0 | 24.4 |
| PA / GAME | 28.0 | 29.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -14.0 | -6.5 |
| SOS | +8.4 | -6.3 |
| POWER | -11.1 | -8.7 |
AVA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Ava finished the job, as Ava and Salem finished 34-13. MOFO's pick of Salem missed; the model had projected a 22-26 final.
The actual margin was 21 points versus MOFO's 3.9-point projection. That produced a 24.9-point margin error, with score errors of 11.6 for Ava and 13.3 for Salem.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SALEM
MOFO leans toward Salem because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 2.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.9-point margin, with Salem carrying a 63% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Salem enters at 24.4 points per game compared with 16.0 for Ava. Ava's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -6.3 for Salem and +8.4 for Ava. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Salem owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Ava has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 2.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.