TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Fayette | Russellville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 4-0 |
| PF / GAME | 17.2 | 39.0 |
| PA / GAME | 31.9 | 12.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -17.1 | +33.7 |
| SOS | +8.6 | -19.0 |
| POWER | -14.1 | +27.0 |
RUSSELLVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Russellville finished the job, as Fayette and Russellville finished 24-46. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 11-39 final.
The actual margin was 22 points versus MOFO's 28.5-point projection. That produced a 6.5-point margin error, with score errors of 13.2 for Fayette and 6.6 for Russellville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD RUSSELLVILLE
MOFO leans toward Russellville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 41.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 28.5-point margin, with Russellville carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Russellville enters at 39.0 points per game compared with 17.2 for Fayette. Russellville also allows 19.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -19.0 for Russellville and +8.6 for Fayette. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Russellville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Fayette has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 41.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.