TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Moberly | Rolla |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-0 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 32.5 | 27.2 |
| PA / GAME | 16.4 | 35.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | +21.9 | -10.8 |
| SOS | -3.4 | +14.7 |
| POWER | +20.7 | -5.7 |
ROLLA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Rolla finished the job, as Moberly and Rolla finished 22-35. MOFO's pick of Moberly missed; the model had projected a 36-19 final.
The actual margin was 13 points versus MOFO's 16.9-point projection. That produced a 29.9-point margin error, with score errors of 14.3 for Moberly and 15.6 for Rolla.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MOBERLY
MOFO leans toward Moberly because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 26.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 16.9-point margin, with Moberly carrying a 91% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Moberly enters at 32.5 points per game compared with 27.2 for Rolla. Moberly also allows 18.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -3.4 for Moberly and +14.7 for Rolla. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Moberly owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Rolla has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 26.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.