ST. THOMAS AQUINAS (KS) WRITES THE FINAL WORD

St. Thomas Aquinas (KS) finished the job, as St. Thomas Aquinas (KS) and Rockhurst finished 28-23. MOFO's pick of Rockhurst missed; the model had projected a 25-28 final.

The actual margin was 5 points versus MOFO's 3.6-point projection. That produced a 8.6-point margin error, with score errors of 3.4 for St. Thomas Aquinas (KS) and 5.2 for Rockhurst.

THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ROCKHURST

MOFO leans toward Rockhurst because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.6-point margin, with Rockhurst carrying a 62% win probability.

St. Thomas Aquinas (KS) actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Rockhurst also allows 8.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.

Strength of schedule checks in at +9.0 for Rockhurst and +10.4 for St. Thomas Aquinas (KS). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low — no season data.