TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Stewartsville | Rock Port |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 4-0 |
| PF / GAME | 40.9 | 43.5 |
| PA / GAME | 46.5 | 24.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -9.5 | +24.0 |
| SOS | +8.2 | +2.6 |
| POWER | -6.6 | +24.9 |
ROCK PORT WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Rock Port finished the job, as Stewartsville and Rock Port finished 8-52. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 29-49 final.
The actual margin was 44 points versus MOFO's 19.3-point projection. That produced a 24.7-point margin error, with score errors of 21.2 for Stewartsville and 3.4 for Rock Port.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ROCK PORT
MOFO leans toward Rock Port because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 31.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 19.3-point margin, with Rock Port carrying a 93% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Rock Port enters at 43.5 points per game compared with 40.9 for Stewartsville. Rock Port also allows 21.8 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.6 for Rock Port and +8.2 for Stewartsville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Rock Port owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Stewartsville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 31.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.