TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Hazelwood West | Ritenour |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| PF / GAME | 25.5 | 27.0 |
| PA / GAME | 29.0 | 31.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | -6.1 | -1.9 |
| SOS | -3.7 | +3.1 |
| POWER | -7.4 | -0.8 |
RITENOUR WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Ritenour finished the job, as Hazelwood West and Ritenour finished 15-43. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 27-29 final.
The actual margin was 28 points versus MOFO's 1.8-point projection. That produced a 26.2-point margin error, with score errors of 12.3 for Hazelwood West and 13.9 for Ritenour.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD RITENOUR
MOFO leans toward Ritenour because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 6.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.8-point margin, with Ritenour carrying a 56% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Ritenour enters at 27.0 points per game compared with 25.5 for Hazelwood West. Hazelwood West's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +3.1 for Ritenour and -3.7 for Hazelwood West. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Ritenour owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Ritenour has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 6.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.