TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Liberal | Rich Hill |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| PF / GAME | 32.2 | 16.2 |
| PA / GAME | 32.5 | 23.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | +1.5 | -10.7 |
| SOS | -12.6 | +1.3 |
| POWER | -2.9 | -10.2 |
RICH HILL WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Rich Hill finished the job, as Liberal and Rich Hill finished 22-48. MOFO's pick of Liberal missed; the model had projected a 28-24 final.
The actual margin was 26 points versus MOFO's 4.7-point projection. That produced a 30.7-point margin error, with score errors of 6.4 for Liberal and 24.3 for Rich Hill.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD LIBERAL
MOFO leans toward Liberal because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.7-point margin, with Liberal carrying a 65% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Liberal enters at 32.2 points per game compared with 16.2 for Rich Hill. Rich Hill's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -12.6 for Liberal and +1.3 for Rich Hill. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Liberal owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Rich Hill has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.