TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Neosho | Republic |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-0 | 3-1 |
| PF / GAME | 39.7 | 33.2 |
| PA / GAME | 19.9 | 19.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +28.1 | +16.3 |
| SOS | -14.0 | -4.5 |
| POWER | +23.2 | +14.7 |
REPUBLIC WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Republic finished the job, as Neosho and Republic finished 35-47. MOFO's pick of Neosho missed; the model had projected a 30-26 final.
The actual margin was 12 points versus MOFO's 4.6-point projection. That produced a 16.6-point margin error, with score errors of 4.8 for Neosho and 21.3 for Republic.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD NEOSHO
MOFO leans toward Neosho because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 8.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.6-point margin, with Neosho carrying a 65% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Neosho enters at 39.7 points per game compared with 33.2 for Republic. Republic's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -14.0 for Neosho and -4.5 for Republic. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Neosho owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Republic has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 8.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.