TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Forsyth | Reeds Spring |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 22.4 | 15.0 |
| PA / GAME | 30.4 | 33.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -12.7 | -25.7 |
| SOS | +4.0 | +0.0 |
| POWER | -11.3 | -25.7 |
FORSYTH WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Forsyth finished the job, as Forsyth and Reeds Spring finished 41-6. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 30-21 final.
The actual margin was 35 points versus MOFO's 8.8-point projection. That produced a 26.2-point margin error, with score errors of 11.2 for Forsyth and 15.0 for Reeds Spring.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD FORSYTH
MOFO leans toward Forsyth because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 14.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 8.8-point margin, with Forsyth carrying a 76% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Forsyth enters at 22.4 points per game compared with 15.0 for Reeds Spring. Forsyth also allows 3.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +4.0 for Forsyth and +0.0 for Reeds Spring. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Forsyth owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Forsyth has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 14.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.