TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Fort Osage | Raytown |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 4-0 |
| PF / GAME | 28.2 | 34.9 |
| PA / GAME | 25.7 | 17.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | +4.7 | +15.8 |
| SOS | -0.7 | -11.8 |
| POWER | +4.4 | +11.7 |
FORT OSAGE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Fort Osage finished the job, as Fort Osage and Raytown finished 40-0. MOFO's pick of Raytown missed; the model had projected a 22-31 final.
The actual margin was 40 points versus MOFO's 8.3-point projection. That produced a 48.3-point margin error, with score errors of 17.6 for Fort Osage and 30.7 for Raytown.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD RAYTOWN
MOFO leans toward Raytown because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 8.3-point margin, with Raytown carrying a 75% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Raytown enters at 34.9 points per game compared with 28.2 for Fort Osage. Raytown also allows 8.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -11.8 for Raytown and -0.7 for Fort Osage. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Raytown owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Fort Osage has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.