TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Central (Cape Girardeau) | Poplar Bluff |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 17.9 | 22.0 |
| PA / GAME | 24.5 | 34.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -10.3 | -14.8 |
| SOS | +12.9 | +2.4 |
| POWER | -5.7 | -13.9 |
CENTRAL (CAPE GIRARDEAU) WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Central (Cape Girardeau) finished the job, as Central (Cape Girardeau) and Poplar Bluff finished 34-21. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 27-22 final.
The actual margin was 13 points versus MOFO's 4.7-point projection. That produced a 8.3-point margin error, with score errors of 7.1 for Central (Cape Girardeau) and 1.3 for Poplar Bluff.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CENTRAL (CAPE GIRARDEAU)
MOFO leans toward Central (Cape Girardeau) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 8.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.7-point margin, with Central (Cape Girardeau) carrying a 65% win probability.
Poplar Bluff actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Central (Cape Girardeau) also allows 9.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +12.9 for Central (Cape Girardeau) and +2.4 for Poplar Bluff. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Poplar Bluff owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Central (Cape Girardeau) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 8.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.