TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Slater | Polo |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 32.5 | 37.4 |
| PA / GAME | 38.4 | 37.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -7.5 | +0.7 |
| SOS | +2.7 | -8.9 |
| POWER | -6.5 | -2.5 |
POLO WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Polo finished the job, as Slater and Polo finished 24-36. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 35-38 final.
The actual margin was 12 points versus MOFO's 3.4-point projection. That produced a 8.6-point margin error, with score errors of 10.6 for Slater and 2.0 for Polo.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD POLO
MOFO leans toward Polo because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 4.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.4-point margin, with Polo carrying a 61% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Polo enters at 37.4 points per game compared with 32.5 for Slater. Polo also allows 1.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -8.9 for Polo and +2.7 for Slater. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Polo owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Slater has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 4.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.