TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Clinton | Pleasant Hill |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| PF / GAME | 29.9 | 23.7 |
| PA / GAME | 27.5 | 25.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +0.9 | -0.3 |
| SOS | -4.7 | +9.5 |
| POWER | -0.8 | +3.0 |
PLEASANT HILL WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Pleasant Hill finished the job, as Clinton and Pleasant Hill finished 10-21. MOFO's pick of Clinton missed; the model had projected a 27-27 final.
The actual margin was 11 points versus MOFO's 0.2-point projection. That produced a 11.2-point margin error, with score errors of 16.8 for Clinton and 5.6 for Pleasant Hill.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CLINTON
MOFO leans toward Clinton because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.2-point margin, with Clinton carrying a 51% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Clinton enters at 29.9 points per game compared with 23.7 for Pleasant Hill. Pleasant Hill's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.7 for Clinton and +9.5 for Pleasant Hill. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Clinton owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Pleasant Hill has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.