TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lawson | Penney |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| PF / GAME | 24.4 | 27.9 |
| PA / GAME | 27.0 | 26.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -4.4 | +1.5 |
| SOS | +4.5 | +4.1 |
| POWER | -2.8 | +3.0 |
LAWSON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Lawson finished the job, as Lawson and Penney finished 42-33. MOFO's pick of Penney missed; the model had projected a 25-28 final.
The actual margin was 9 points versus MOFO's 3.2-point projection. That produced a 12.2-point margin error, with score errors of 17.1 for Lawson and 4.9 for Penney.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD PENNEY
MOFO leans toward Penney because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 5.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.2-point margin, with Penney carrying a 60% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Penney enters at 27.9 points per game compared with 24.4 for Lawson. Penney also allows 0.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +4.1 for Penney and +4.5 for Lawson. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Penney owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lawson has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 5.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.