TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | North Callaway | Palmyra |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| PF / GAME | 42.5 | 33.9 |
| PA / GAME | 27.7 | 24.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | +18.5 | +10.2 |
| SOS | +5.4 | +1.5 |
| POWER | +20.4 | +10.7 |
PALMYRA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Palmyra finished the job, as North Callaway and Palmyra finished 50-84. MOFO's pick of North Callaway missed; the model had projected a 35-30 final.
The actual margin was 34 points versus MOFO's 4.8-point projection. That produced a 38.8-point margin error, with score errors of 15.5 for North Callaway and 54.3 for Palmyra.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD NORTH CALLAWAY
MOFO leans toward North Callaway because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 9.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.8-point margin, with North Callaway carrying a 65% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: North Callaway enters at 42.5 points per game compared with 33.9 for Palmyra. Palmyra's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +5.4 for North Callaway and +1.5 for Palmyra. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01North Callaway owns the stronger scoring profile.
02North Callaway has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 9.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.