TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Nixa | Ozark |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 32.9 | 24.0 |
| PA / GAME | 20.7 | 31.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +15.4 | -6.0 |
| SOS | +13.0 | +7.5 |
| POWER | +20.0 | -3.4 |
NIXA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Nixa finished the job, as Nixa and Ozark finished 45-28. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 34-20 final.
The actual margin was 17 points versus MOFO's 14.6-point projection. That produced a 2.4-point margin error, with score errors of 10.6 for Nixa and 8.1 for Ozark.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD NIXA
MOFO leans toward Nixa because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 23.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 14.6-point margin, with Nixa carrying a 87% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Nixa enters at 32.9 points per game compared with 24.0 for Ozark. Nixa also allows 10.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +13.0 for Nixa and +7.5 for Ozark. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Nixa owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Nixa has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 23.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.