TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Eldon | Osage |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 16.0 | 19.9 |
| PA / GAME | 33.7 | 35.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | -24.5 | -19.3 |
| SOS | -5.1 | +11.7 |
| POWER | -26.3 | -15.2 |
OSAGE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Osage finished the job, as Eldon and Osage finished 7-47. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 24-29 final.
The actual margin was 40 points versus MOFO's 4.5-point projection. That produced a 35.5-point margin error, with score errors of 17.0 for Eldon and 18.5 for Osage.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD OSAGE
MOFO leans toward Osage because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 11.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.5-point margin, with Osage carrying a 65% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Osage enters at 19.9 points per game compared with 16.0 for Eldon. Eldon's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +11.7 for Osage and -5.1 for Eldon. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Osage owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Osage has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 11.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.