TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Concordia | Orrick |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| PF / GAME | 26.7 | 28.9 |
| PA / GAME | 18.9 | 29.5 |
| AVG MARGIN | +10.2 | -1.2 |
| SOS | -10.8 | -3.9 |
| POWER | +6.4 | -2.6 |
CONCORDIA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Concordia finished the job, as Concordia and Orrick finished 41-6. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 29-23 final.
The actual margin was 35 points versus MOFO's 5.8-point projection. That produced a 29.2-point margin error, with score errors of 12.1 for Concordia and 17.1 for Orrick.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CONCORDIA
MOFO leans toward Concordia because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 9.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.8-point margin, with Concordia carrying a 68% win probability.
Orrick actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Concordia also allows 10.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -10.8 for Concordia and -3.9 for Orrick. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Orrick owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Orrick has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 9.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.