TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Oak Grove | Odessa |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| PF / GAME | 23.0 | 37.9 |
| PA / GAME | 22.5 | 15.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -2.1 | +24.9 |
| SOS | -6.2 | -2.3 |
| POWER | -4.3 | +24.1 |
ODESSA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Odessa finished the job, as Oak Grove and Odessa finished 12-16. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 16-33 final.
The actual margin was 4 points versus MOFO's 17.1-point projection. That produced a 13.1-point margin error, with score errors of 4.1 for Oak Grove and 17.2 for Odessa.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ODESSA
MOFO leans toward Odessa because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 28.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 17.1-point margin, with Odessa carrying a 91% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Odessa enters at 37.9 points per game compared with 23.0 for Oak Grove. Odessa also allows 7.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -2.3 for Odessa and -6.2 for Oak Grove. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Odessa owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Odessa has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 28.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.