TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Parkway South | Oakville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| PF / GAME | 34.9 | 27.4 |
| PA / GAME | 21.9 | 21.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | +14.3 | +11.1 |
| SOS | -8.0 | +0.2 |
| POWER | +11.5 | +11.2 |
OAKVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Oakville finished the job, as Parkway South and Oakville finished 7-55. MOFO's pick of Parkway South missed; the model had projected a 28-25 final.
The actual margin was 48 points versus MOFO's 2.8-point projection. That produced a 50.8-point margin error, with score errors of 20.7 for Parkway South and 30.1 for Oakville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD PARKWAY SOUTH
MOFO leans toward Parkway South because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 0.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.8-point margin, with Parkway South carrying a 59% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Parkway South enters at 34.9 points per game compared with 27.4 for Oakville. Oakville's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -8.0 for Parkway South and +0.2 for Oakville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Parkway South owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Oakville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 0.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.